China's energy transformation enters a critical period

November 24, 2020

The energy transformation has been raised to the national strategic level, subject to the energy structure endowment and the breakthrough bottleneck of the new energy technology itself. China appears to be struggling in the promotion of new energy. The 2017 Sanya International Energy Forum with the theme of “Green Energy and Low Carbon Economy” was recently held in Hainan. Participants believed that in recent years, large-scale polluted weather in some areas has brought threats to people's health. Coal is the main factor. Energy is one of the causes of air pollution. Experts believe that to win the blue sky defense war, we must recognize the reality of China as a major energy-consuming country, implement the action of replacing coal with oil, and explore new models to achieve energy transformation as soon as possible.

"Veritious" largest energy consumer

The energy industry is the driving force and blood of economic development. Both developed and developing countries put energy development and security in an important strategic position. In particular, the current macro economy is facing a major challenge of transformation and upgrading. The importance of energy is becoming more and more important. Prominent.

The International Energy Agency estimates that China's energy demand will reach 5 billion tons of standard coal by 2020, and by 2035 China will surpass the US to become the world's largest energy consumer.

Li Shousheng, president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, said that China has now become the world's fastest growing crude oil, refining and natural gas producer. At present, China's crude oil production ranks fifth in the world, accounting for 4.7% of world crude oil production. In 2016, China's crude oil output was 200 million tons. This is the domestic crude oil output has stabilized at more than 200 million tons for six consecutive years since 2010; the crude oil processing volume is 540 million tons, an increase of 1.9% over 2010. China's refining capacity ranks second in the world, second only to the United States. At present, China's natural gas production ranks sixth in the world, accounting for 3.8% of the world's natural gas production. In 2016, China's natural gas production was 136.83 billion cubic meters. Since 2010, it has grown at an average annual rate of 6.7%.

At the same time, China has become a global consumer of crude oil and natural gas. In 2016, China's apparent consumption of crude oil reached 576 million tons, ranking second in the world in terms of crude oil consumption, second only to the United States. In 2016, the apparent consumption of natural gas in China was 205.8 billion cubic meters, accounting for 6.4% of primary energy consumption. In the current natural gas consumption structure, industrial fuels, city gas, power generation, and chemical industries account for 38%, 32.5%, 14.7%, and 14.6%, respectively. Compared with 2010, the proportion of gas used in city gas and industrial fuels increased, and chemical and power generation. The gas ratio has decreased.

Natural gas is an important foundation for China to promote the revolution of energy production and consumption and achieve green and low-carbon development. According to China's energy development “13th Five-Year Plan”, the proportion of natural gas in primary energy consumption will reach 10% in 2020. China has a population of 1.37 billion. According to the total consumption of natural gas consumption of about 210 billion cubic meters last year, it now covers more than 400 million people, only meeting the needs of one third of the country's population, and two-thirds of the market needs further Opening up, the current "gas shortage" situation in North China and Central China has once again proved that the potential of China's natural gas market is very huge.

China's energy transformation faces many challenges

From shale gas to combustible ice to dry hot rock, this year, China's unconventional energy development has achieved many major breakthroughs, and the energy industry has taken substantial steps. However, many experts at the meeting said that China's energy transformation faces many challenges, and reform and innovation cannot be delayed. On the whole, whether it is the upgrading of traditional energy technologies or the rapid breakthrough of new energy technologies, China's energy industry faces a series of major challenges from structure to technology, management to system.

Xu Dingming, former director of the National Energy Administration and a State Council counselor, said that in recent years, China's energy consumption will continue to grow, and green and low carbon will become the direction of energy development. With the acceleration of ecological civilization construction, vigorously promoting the energy revolution and energy transformation, continuously optimizing the energy supply and demand structure, and striving to achieve clean and low-carbon development, this is not only the essential requirement for promoting the energy revolution, but also the urgent need for China's economic and social transformation and development.

“Energy transformation is a long-term process. The goal of achieving a clean and low-carbon modern energy system still needs to solve some deep-seated contradictions and problems.” Li Shousheng said.

At present, China's refining capacity is about 800 million tons, crude oil processing capacity is less than 600 million tons, and the contradiction of overcapacity is very prominent. At the same time, domestic refining companies still have bottlenecks of low concentration and slow product technology upgrades. The significant trend of the world petrochemical industry is scale and clustering. Compared with petrochemical powers, there is a distance between the scale and clustering of China's petrochemical industry.

According to statistics, 52% of the US refining capacity and 95% of ethylene capacity are concentrated in the coastal areas of Mexico. 85% of Japan's refining capacity and 89% of ethylene's capacity are distributed in the Pacific Rim. South Korea's Ulsan refinery capacity of 42 million tons, ethylene capacity of 3.4 million tons; Singapore Jurong annual refining capacity of 67.32 million tons, ethylene capacity of 3.87 million tons. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. is the No. 1 refining and chemical enterprise in China, with an annual refining capacity of 23 million tons. However, among the enterprises with a global refining capacity of over 20 million tons, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical is only ranked 18th. This reflects the fact that China's refining and chemical industry has long been a large number of enterprises, small scale, and unreasonable industrial distribution. There are currently more than 240 refining companies in China, except for the four provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities of Tibet, Tibet and other provinces. There are refineries built, with an average annual production scale of only 3.08 million tons, far below the world average of 7.42 million tons.

"In addition to this, we should also face up to such a grim reality: on the one hand, the refining industry has a serious overcapacity, and on the other hand, the construction of large-scale refineries is still in full swing. From the painful experience of 'de-capacity', we should get a painful The lesson, you must not use today's investment to create tomorrow's disaster." Li Shousheng said.

In addition, China's new energy and new energy technologies are facing multiple technological breakthroughs and need to accelerate the severe test of strategic choices. According to the latest BP World Energy Statistics Yearbook released this year, China has surpassed the United States in 2016 to become the world's largest renewable energy producer, contributing 40% of global renewable energy growth, exceeding the total increase of the OECD, China. It is leading the accelerated development of global renewable energy.

Changes in the energy sector are spurring new growth points in the energy industry, while also placing demands on the traditional energy industry to accelerate strategic choices.

"China's traditional petrochemical industry is facing the challenge of subversive technological breakthroughs. In the future, there must be preparations for sustainable development. At present, the development of electric vehicles is attracting attention. In the face of the sudden emergence of new energy vehicles, is traditional petrochemical industry? In the development crisis, this needs to be highly valued and deeply considered by the petrochemical industry, especially the energy industry.” Li Shousheng said, when and where the traditional petrochemical energy industry was transformed from an energy-based technology route to a chemical raw material type. Technical route, this will be the most realistic multiple-choice question that practitioners must answer in the future.

At present, lithium-ion battery technology and hydrogen production and hydrogen storage technologies are undergoing an innovation competition that is striving for the top. The energy industry is always in the midst of change. The development of the traditional energy industry must have advanced strategic thinking. It must have strategic plans for transformation and upgrading, and it must have strategic and technological reserves for sustainable development.

Integrated complementary distributed energy is the development direction

In view of the current status of energy structure and air pollution, focusing on the optimization of energy structure and how to expand the proportion of renewable energy, Zheng Xinli, executive director of the China Policy Science Research Association, believes that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of natural gas import infrastructure and ships, and strengthen domestic natural gas. In particular, the exploration and development of shale gas, including the exploration and development of marine combustible ice, accelerates the clean and efficient use of coal-based natural gas and coal, and accelerates the development and utilization of biomass energy and renewable energy.

For example, Zheng Xinli said that the annual coal output in the Ordos Basin is 900 million tons. If it can be extracted from the small molecules of natural gas and oil from the inside, it can provide about 100 million tons of oil per year. And natural gas, which can replace a considerable portion of natural gas and oil imports.

Zheng Xinli said that through the import, through the development and utilization of our domestic natural gas resources, we strive to achieve 10% of natural gas consumption in China's primary energy structure as soon as possible, especially in key air pollution areas to accelerate the increase in the proportion of natural gas use, which will win the blue sky The defending war made an important contribution to the decisive victory.

Experts at the meeting believed that while continuing to do a good job in clean and efficient use of coal, we will steadily develop renewable energy such as wind power and solar energy, vigorously develop natural gas distributed energy and natural gas peaking power stations, and actively promote ethanol gasoline, biodiesel and other raw materials. The development of material energy has actively promoted the substitution of coal for gas and oil for gas in the fields of civil, industrial and transportation.

Li Shousheng believes that while new energy technologies continue to make new progress, new energy technologies are also innovating. At present, the most eye-catching should be the rapid development of new energy vehicles, as well as a series of new energy technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells and biomass fuels, providing a rare strategic opportunity for the development of the energy industry.

Lin Huajun, chairman and CEO of Changfeng Energy Co., Ltd. believes that combining the current energy use situation in China, how to use limited energy efficiently and amicably has become the focus of energy utilization. The key practice of adjusting the industrial structure and transforming the mode of economic growth is to adjust the structure of primary energy utilization.

"Proactively developing new energy sources, continuously improving energy conversion technologies, improving energy efficiency, innovating energy utilization technologies and supplying service business models, achieving energy conservation and emission reduction have long-term strategic significance for promoting China's rapid economic development, industrial upgrading and environmental protection. Lin Huajun said that China's energy system is in a period of great change, and future changes will be further accelerated. It can be expected that China's energy industry will inevitably develop towards a variety of energy organic integration, integration and complementary distributed energy.

Lin Huajun said that he hopes that China will have more natural gas resources and increase the proportion of natural gas used as primary energy. In recent years, Changfeng Energy has cooperated extensively with domestic and foreign energy research institutions and well-known enterprises to continuously explore and innovate in technology and service fields; actively explore international LNG trade channels, prepare an international energy trading platform, and develop energy utilization projects based on comprehensive utilization. Promoting multi-energy complementary integration optimization projects has begun to take effect. In addition, Changfeng Energy and EDF Group launched a low-carbon smart energy project in Haitang Bay, Sanya to improve the energy structure and explore the path for sustainable development of clean energy.

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