Electricity demand growth rate is much lower than expected power surplus era or coming

December 25, 2019

Abstract Lead: What is the sharp drop in the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in the whole year, and the new low in the number of hours of equipment utilization? Is the era of excess electricity really coming? Recently, the National Energy Administration reported the data on social electricity consumption in 2014. On the one hand, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 3.8% year-on-year...
Lead: The sharp decline in the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in the whole year, what is the new low in the number of hours of equipment utilization? Is the era of excess electricity really coming?

Recently, the National Energy Administration reported the data on social electricity consumption in 2014. On the one hand, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 3.8% year-on-year. Compared with the estimated total electricity consumption of the whole society at the beginning of last year, it increased by 7.0% year-on-year. Half, on the other hand, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment for power plants of 6,000 kW and above in 2014 was 4,286 hours, a decrease of 235 hours compared with the same period of last year, the lowest level since 1978.

Under normal circumstances, if the annual utilization hours of equipment exceeds 5,500 hours, it indicates that the electricity consumption in the area is tight, and 5,000 hours is stable for electricity consumption. Below 4,500 hours, the electricity consumption is relatively saturated, and generally no new installation is required.

What is the peak of the increase in electricity consumption in the whole society in the whole year and the new low in the number of hours of equipment utilization? Is the era of excess electricity really coming?

From 7% to 3.8%

The electricity consumption of the whole society is a "barometer" of the economic operation situation. According to the latest data on the whole society's electricity consumption released by the National Energy Administration, in 2014, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 552.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. In terms of industries, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 99.4 billion kWh, down 0.2% year-on-year; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 406.5 billion kWh, up 3.7% year-on-year; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 666 billion kWh, up 6.4 year-on-year. %; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 692.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%.

However, in February this year, the “2014 National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report” issued by the China Electricity Council predicted that the GDP will increase by about 7.5% year-on-year, and the corresponding social power consumption will increase by about 7.0% year-on-year. This figure has already been It is significantly lower than the 7.5% increase in electricity consumption in 2013.

However, this is only the beginning. In the middle of last year, the “Outline of the Power Industry Operation in January-June 2014” released by the China Electricity Council showed that from January to June, the national total electricity consumption was 2.6276 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. At this time, CEC conducted the first "speed regulation" for the annual electricity consumption growth rate. It believes that the growth rate of power consumption in 2014 will be slightly lower than that in 2013, and the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by 6%.

This expected figure was refreshed again when the data for the third quarter was released three months later, which was 3.5% for the annual electricity consumption. The change from 7% to 6% took nearly half a year, and it took only three months from 6% to 3.5%.

It is worth noting that on November 2, the first three quarters of 2014, the national power supply and demand situation analysis and forecast report released by the China Electricity Council said that the whole society's electricity consumption in the first three quarters increased by 3.9%, including the third quarter of the whole society. The growth rate dropped to 1.4%, and the 1.4% electricity consumption growth rate was the lowest growth rate since the third quarter of 2009, down 9.5 and 3.8 percentage points year-on-year and month-on-month respectively.

In response, the Deputy Secretary-General of the China Electricity Council, Ouyang Changyu, said in an interview with the Economic Observer that from the overall trend of power demand, the growth rate of electricity demand has entered the “shift period”.

Recently, the National Energy Administration announced the electricity consumption in 2014. Although it is slightly higher than the 3.5% expected in November, the slowdown in electricity consumption growth is a fait accompli. "The economy has entered a new normal, and the slowdown in the growth rate of electricity consumption is normal." Jiang Shaojun, director of the Economic Regulation Department of the former Ministry of Energy, told the Economic Observer.

New energy ratio rises

Not only is the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society “substantially reduced”, but the utilization hours of power generation equipment in 2014 also hit a record low.

On January 21, the National Energy Administration released an industry express report that the average utilization hours of power generation equipment for power plants of 6,000 kW and above in 2014 was 4,286 hours, a decrease of 235 hours compared with the same period of last year, the lowest level since 1978.

Among them, the sudden decrease in the average utilization hours of thermal power, nuclear power and wind power generation equipment is the main factor leading to a significant decline in this figure. According to the statistics of the Express, at the end of 2014, the national thermal power installed capacity was 920 million kilowatts, and the average utilization time of equipment was 4,706 hours, a decrease of 314 hours compared with the same period of last year, which was the lowest level since 1978. At the end of 2014, the national nuclear power installed capacity was 19.88 million kilowatts, and the average utilization time of equipment was 7489. Hours, a year-on-year decrease of 385 hours; at the end of 2014, the installed capacity of wind power installed in the country was 95.81 million kilowatts, and the average utilization time of equipment was 1,905 hours, a decrease of 120 hours.

In terms of thermal power, the average utilization rate of thermal power in 10 provinces including Tianjin, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hainan, Shaanxi, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang exceeded 5,000 hours, but Jilin, Shanghai, Hunan, Sichuan, Yunnan and Tibet 6 The provinces were less than 4,000 hours, of which Tibet, Yunnan and Sichuan were only 701, 2749 and 3552 hours respectively. Compared with the previous year, there were 24 provinces with a decrease in thermal power utilization hours, of which Guizhou and Tibet fell more than 1,000 hours.

In terms of wind power, among the top ten provinces with wind power installed capacity, the average utilization hours of wind power equipment in five provinces such as Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Xinjiang exceeded the national average. The average utilization hours of wind power in Jilin and Gansu were only 1501 and 1596 respectively. hour.

In this regard, the National Energy Administration's analysis believes that the main reason for the new low utilization hours of power generation equipment is "affected by factors such as the slowdown in power demand growth and the increasing proportion of new energy installed capacity."

For the power industry, for the utilization hours of power generation equipment, in general, if the equipment utilization hours of the whole year are more than 5,500 hours, the electricity consumption in the area is tight, and 5000 hours is stable for electricity consumption, and less than 4500 hours, electricity is used. The situation is relatively saturated, generally no need to add new installations.

The 4286 hours of power generation hours throughout the year has been far below the equilibrium of 5,000 hours, and is less than the relative saturation of 4500 hours.

“The power market has entered an era of excess? In my opinion, we have to look at it again.” Jiang Shaojun said, “On the one hand, GDP in 2014 increased by 7.4% year-on-year, and the overall economy still maintained medium-high growth; on the other hand, the national investment will Focusing on large-scale infrastructure construction will also boost the electricity consumption in the relevant industrial and economic sectors. In addition, this year's power system reform will have new trends, which will also bring about new changes in the electricity market to some extent."


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